Argentina Politics Updates - 5 April 2023
Alberto's campaign uncertainty, comparisons to Trump and Bolsonaro, IMF loan disbursement
Argentina March inflation seen hitting 7%, challenging Sergio Massa (Buenos Aires Times)
“The worsening outlook indicates that Argentina’s currency controls, multiple exchange rates and price freezes on thousands of items are proving ineffective.”
Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who has not yet announced if he will be participating in the country’s October elections, is banking on an improved economic outlook to increase his chances in a hypothetical campaign
In March, consumer prices were forecast to have increased 7% since February, the highest monthly rate since Massa took office in August 2022
Fernández refuses to confirm second run during YouTube interview (Buenos Aires Herald)
The current president confirmed the participation of his Frente de Todos coalition in the August primaries, though he did not specify on who the candidate(s) would be
“I want the Frente de Todos to continue in power – with whoever that is.”
Where do Mauricio Macri’s votes go? (Perfíl)
With Mauricio Macri no longer a potential candidate with the Juntos por el Cambio coalition, polls show that former defense minister and current PRO leader Patricia Bullrich benefits the most, having risen from 11.5% voter intent to 20.7%
Javier Milei rose from 15.3% to 17%
Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, current mayor of the City of Buenos Aires, rose from 6.5% to 10%
Juan Negri, political analyst: “I don't know if we are going to have something similar to trumpism or bolsonarismo in Argentina” (Forbes)
Alberto Fernandez’s presidency was characterized by attempting to place blame on external actors for all of Argentina’s problems, rather than having the government assume responsibility
Milei is different from Trump and Bolsonaro in the fact that the military rhetoric is not as strong in Argentina, and that Milei is mostly focused on the economy:
Milei’s social rhetoric also does not go as deep as Bolsonaro’s or Trump’s
The author does not believe Argentina in 2023 will face some sort of hyper crisis or a crisis similar to that of 2001
Polo Obrero announces 128 pickets for April 5 (Infobae, Buenos Aires Herald, La Nación)
The social organization is protesting against the country’s most recent poverty indices and the government’s deal with the IMF
The Unidad Piquetera is demanding food and additional social programs
“Last week, the National Institute for Statistics and Census (INDEC) published that, during the second semester of 2022, 39.2% of Argentines were below the poverty line and 8.1% were below the destitution threshold. The report also found that 54.2% of children aged 0 to 14 were poor and 12% were destitute.”
Other protests are also being planned, primarily by the Argentine Agrarian Federation (FAA), scheduled for next Tuesday
Alberto Fernández will travel to Chile and meet with Gabriel Boric to strengthen the bilateral relationship (Infobae)
The trip will begin today, Wednesday April 5
The trip will also include a meeting with other Latin American presidents to discuss rising inflation across the region
Presidential attendees include: AMLO from Mexico, Lula from Brazil, Boric from Chile, Petro from Colombia, Diaz-Canel from Cuba, Castro from Honduras, and Arce from Bolivia
Prime Minister Juan Antonio Briceño from Belize and Prime Minister Ralph Everard Gonsalves from St. Vincent and the Grenadines will also be in attendance
Argentina will not grow in 2023 (Página 12)
The World Bank altered its estimate of Argentina’s economic growth this year, publishing a 0% growth forecast due to the country’s extreme drought that has been impacting its exports
Debt: Argentina lost another lawsuit and must pay $1.33 billion euros to bondholders (El Cronista)
The government was found to have manipulated INDEC statistics, the country’s national statistics and census bureau, which impeded bondholders from claiming payments
A program implemented in 2005 called “Negotiable Values Tied to GDP,” colloquially known as “GDP Coupons,” stated that Argentina would pay bondholders once the economy grew over 3%
Four British hedge funds claimed that under the Cristina Kirchner’s second term as president, economic statistics were manipulated to make it seem as though the economy was underperforming, therefore making Argentina not liable to make payments to bondholders
IMF board approves US$5.3-billion loan disbursement for Argentina (Buenos Aires Times)
The board approved the disbursement of funds on Friday, after the IMF’s fourth review of Argentina’s program
The total funds allocated to Argentina since the beginning of the program in March 2022 reach US $28.9 billion, of the program’s US $44.5-billion deal
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