Argentina Politics Updates - 4 May 2023
Upcoming provincial elections, renegotiations of IMF disbursements, proposed lithium nationalization
Politics
Eight provincial elections in Argentina to watch with national impact (Buenos Aires Times, Infobae)
Sunday, May 7: gubernatorial elections in Jujuy, Misiones, and La Rioja
A gubernatorial win by the Radicals in Jujuy, in particular, would give the Radicals an important leg up in internal negotiations within the Juntos por el Cambio coalition
Sunday, May 14: Tucumán, San Juan, Salta, La Pampa, and Tierra del Fuego
Tucumán holds the largest voting district of any northern province
A Frente de Todos win is currently predicted
Outgoing Tucumán governor Juan Manzur wants to run for president
Javier Milei will not be supporting the three candidates of his Libertad Avanza libertarian party these two weekends due to “a different logic”
Alberto, CFK and Massa: three different strategies for the upcoming elections (Buenos Aires Times)
Though Massa has not yet confirmed his candidacy, he has been delivering political favors to key politicians and making it clear he would expect favors in return
Sources believe that Massa is Cristina Kirchner’s top choice, and she has endorsed almost every move made by the Economy Ministry in recent months, but the VP has been monitoring the economy and has not yet made a formal announcement of her top pick
Alberto Fernández claims he will have a candidate to present during the country’s PASO, but that Kirchnerism as a whole does not have a strategy ahead of the elections in October
Cristina Kirchner challenged the judges that will review her sentence and one of them recused themselves from the case (La Nación)
CFK requested that three of the judges reviewing her sentence be removed from the case; one of them, Javier Carbajo, had already announced he would be recusing himself
The other two are Mariano Borinsky and Gustavo Hornos
CFK called for the recusal of Borinsky and Hornos due to their visits with former president Mauricio Macri, either in Olivos or the Casa Rosada
Economics
United States would support IMF speeding up loan disbursements to Argentina (Buenos Aires Times)
Argentina would like to advance the disbursement of US$10.6 billion it is set to receive by the IMF between June and December
“The United States would be supportive of frontloading the payments because it sees the need to prevent Argentina’s economic crisis from getting worse”
Argentina's Central Bank reserves drop to lowest level since 2016 (Buenos Aires Times)
The Central Bank’s gross reserves are just above US$35 billion, and net reserves are at almost zero
A payment to the IMF is scheduled for this Thursday, which will bring reserves even lower
Parallel rates calm as Argentina tightens rules for taking dollars out of country (Buenos Aires Times)
The National Securities Commission (CNV) is limiting the ability of traders to access the ‘medio electronico de pagos’ (MEP) and ‘contado con liquidación’ (CCL) exchange rates.
“The new regulations are a bid to cut the ability of brokers to access “cauciones o pases” ("guarantees or passes," or credits) and with that money access the MEP and CCL rate, which increases demand and favours the rise in the quotation.”
Argentina increased its public debt an additional 20% and will owe US$8.878 per capita in 2025 (Bloomberg Línea)
Public debt reached $392 billion in 2022, representing 85% of the country’s GDP
Lithium
The Rising Geopolitical Importance of Argentine Lithium (National Interest)
Scott MacDonald outlines the opportunities that lithium mining can offer Argentina, notes the differences between the dirigiste and statist models of management of the sector, and explains China’s influence on the sector’s development
Ruling coalition deputies bid for lithium nationalization (MercoPress, Buenos Aires Herald)
Deputies from the Frente de Todos coalition presented a bill to Congress on Tuesday that would declare the country’s natural lithium reserves a “strategic resource” and nationalize the sector
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