Argentina Politics Updates - 31 May 2023
First official FdT candidacy launch, potential expansion of currency swap with China, request for financial support from BRICS
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Politics
Cabinet Chief Agustín Rossi officially launches presidential candidacy (Buenos Aires Times, Buenos Aires Herald)
Rossi is part of the ruling FdT coalition, though he has not been chosen as the coalition’s prime candidate; he is the first FdT politician to make his candidacy official
In a campaign video, Rossi remembered the “happy days” under the administrations of Néstor and Cristina, vowing to return to those ideals
Rossi believes the FdT candidate should be decided in the PASO primaries, rather than having a candidate chosen by the coalition beforehand
As candidacy rumors grow, Massa and De Pedro show themselves together (Buenos Aires Herald)
Some analysts have proposed the idea that Economy Minister Sergio Massa and Interior Minister Eduardo “Wado” De Pedro may form part of the same presidential ticket
Argentina’s Presidential Primaries Could Be Headed To A Three Way Tie Between Javier Milei, The Opposition (JxC), And The Peronists (Forbes)
“If Milei emerges as the single most-voted-for individual candidate in the PASOs, as most opinion polls suggest, it will be in great part down to the many failures of the traditional parties and their coalitions,” writes Agustino Fontevecchia
A three way tie could lead to a third-place result for the ruling Frente de Todos (FdT) coalition, eliminating them from a potential runoff election
“The big problem with projecting Milei’s current figures in the polls into real voting intention is the lack of previous empirical data, given the novelty of the phenomenon.”
Argentina: Prosecutor calls for trial of suspects in VP assassination attempt (AP News)
Prosecutor Carlos Alberto Rivolo said that the case into the failed assassination attempt on VP Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) last September is over, and called for the three detained suspects to face trial
“There is so far no evidence that points to political financing or planning of the alleged crime,” and that the suspects acted alone
CFK criticized the speed at which the prosecutor decided to close the case, believing that he and those involved in investigating the crime were not actually interested in carrying out a thorough investigation
This is yet another example of the worsening feud between CFK and the judiciary
Opposition criticism as President Fernández meets with Venezuela's Maduro (Buenos Aires Times)
In a bilateral meeting with Nicolás Maduro, Fernández called for the removal of sanctions on Venezuela as well as the country’s reintegration to international forums and organizations, in particular the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR)
Both Horacio Rodriguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich of the opposition Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) coalition condemned Fernández’ decision to meet with the dictator
Judges across the country become involved in the fight for funds between the Court and the government (La Nación)
Compared to 2022, the Executive sent 4.4% fewer funds to the Judiciary and 1.8% fewer funds to the Public Prosecutor’s Office in the first quarter of 2023, according to the Congressional Budget Office
The Court had requested a reallocation of budget funds, a request rejected by the government
Javier Milei confident he’ll win Argentina's election in run-off (Buenos Aires Times)
Milei cited polls showing that, regardless of who his opponent would be in the event of a run-off election, he still had significant chances of winning the presidency
It is possible that Milei will take more than 20% of the vote in the August 13 PASO primary elections
Despite the tales of an Ezeiza exodus, immigrants keep arriving in Argentina (Buenos Aires Times, via Americas Migration Brief)
Argentina is home to more than 3 million immigrants, compared to the one million Argentines who have left the country to live abroad
“Most foreigners living in Argentina hail from other parts of Latin America,” primarily from Paraguay, Bolivia, Peru, Venezuela, Chile, Uruguay, and Colombia
Economics
Argentina to seek larger currency swap line with China; move may pave ground for closer trade ties: expert (Global Times, MercoPress)
China and Argentina already expanded the currency swap line in January, for “reinforcement of international reserves of 130 billion yuan and a special activation of 35 billion yuan to compensate operations on the foreign exchange market.”
The move is set to help Argentina boost its quickly-draining dollar reserves, offering a short-term economic lifeline
Argentina owes the IMF $2.682 billion between June 21-22
Will New Argentine Economic Measures Lower Inflation? (Latin America Advisor, via Latin America Daily Briefing)
Recent economic measures, including interest rate hikes, additional intervention by the central bank in currency markets, and expedited deals with creditors “are unlikely to tame the country’s runaway inflation, and are instead aimed at muddling through until October’s elections”
Brazil Sees Argentina in Urgent Need of Another Bailout (Bloomberg)
Argentina has never asked Brazil for a bilateral loan, but Brazilian President Lula da Silva’s economic teams believe its neighbor will likely need financial assistance in the coming months
Chile and Colombia are two other regional alternatives for additional financial assistance for Argentina
An unidentified Brazilian government official “described Argentina as a regional partner that’s too big to collapse, but not relevant enough on the global stage to convince the International Monetary Fund or even China to mobilize the additional resources the country urgently needs.”
Sergio Massa defines a proposal to achieve support from BRICS, following the failed initiative Lula da Silva offered Alberto Fernández (Infobae)
On Thursday Massa is set to meet with Dilma Rousseff, current president of the BRICS multilateral trade bloc, to discuss potential financial mechanisms to help boost Argentina’s dwindling reserves
Brazilian President Lula da Silva had proposed potential funding for Argentina through the Nuevo Banco de Desarrollo (NBD), run by Dilma Rousseff on behalf of the BRICS, despite the NBD not being an option
Lithium
Argentina LNG, hydrogen bills enter congress (BN Americas)
Congress is generally united on issues of energy sector development, though the upcoming presidential elections may affect the timing of the bills’ passing
Two bills were presented to Congress, which include requirements for regulatory frameworks for investment in LNG and hydrogen products
Chile set to lose ground in global lithium rankings to Argentina (Buenos Aires Times)
A recently released report predicts Argentina will surpass Chile as the second-largest supplier of lithium, behind Australia, in the next decade
Allkem CEO: Chile’s lithium strategy “will mean more investments for Argentina” (Bloomberg Línea)
Argentina is currently seeking a trade deal with the US involving lithium; it is the US’ main lithium supplier
Chile’s recent announcement of its intention to seek the partial nationalization of its lithium sector is likely to cause investors to seek opportunities in neighboring Argentina
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