Argentina Politics Update - 8 November 2023
New polling results, Milei and supporters push electoral fraud narrative, Argentina makes $840 million IMF interest payment
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Politics
Argentina polls show election race tightening; winner hard to call (Reuters, Buenos Aires Times)
Polls in Argentina are showing a decreasing difference between Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa and libertarian outsider Javier Milei; Analogías predicted Massa in the lead with 42.4% compared to Milei’s 39.7%, with 18% of respondents unsure, while Atlas Intel predicted Milei in the lead with 48.5% compared to Massa’s 44.7%, with 7% of undecideds
CB Consultoras places Milei in first place with 46.3%, with Massa at 43.1%, 5.7% undecided, and 4.9% planning on casting a blank vote
Despite lack of evidence, LLA supporters push electoral fraud narrative (Buenos Aires Herald, Infobae)
Milei and his supporters have made constant “unfounded claims of electoral fraud” despite a significant lack of evidence to the contrary, with Milei claiming there were “irregularities during the election that place the results in doubt”
Milei’s own party, La Libertad Avanza (LLA) has not filed any legal complaint, and the National Electoral Directorate has not seen any evidence of fraud
There seems to be a coordinated social media initiative to promote the narrative of electoral fraud, including by LLA candidates and representatives themselves
The final tally, carried out by the National Electoral Justice (part of the judiciary) had almost the same results as the provisional count, carried out by the National Electoral Directorate (part of the executive branch), strong evidence that there was no widespread electoral fraud in the election’s first round
Argentina: between a rock and a hard place (El País)
Argentina’s runoff elections, to be held on November 19, will see a strengthening of extremist positions as Massa and Milei try and gain the remaining votes left by their former opposing candidates
Bullrich voters will be key to determining the outcome of the election
‘Petty advantage’ takes on ‘power’s pussycat’ (Buenos Aires Times)
The recently-announced Milei-Macri alliance could either make or break Milei’s campaign efforts, while Massa will continue to try and convince voters he is not related to Kirchnerism
Sergio Massa says Cristina Fernández de Kirchner would not form part of his government (Buenos Aires Times)
Massa clarified that, if he is elected, current vice president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner would not serve in his cabinet nor in any other post in his government
Massa also keeps pushing for a “unity government,” insisting that his government will provide a voice to everyone
Opposition politicians who are backing Sergio Massa in the presidential run-off (Buenos Aires Times)
Opposition Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) coalition leaders are divided over which candidate to support, following JxC founder Mauricio Macri’s announcement of explicit support for Milei
The Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) party, one of the pillars of JxC, announced it would not formally back either candidate, though many of its leaders including Sergio Palazzo and Leandro Santoro are publicly supporting Massa
The party of former candidate Juan Schiaretti, Hacemos por Nuestro País, has already announced support for Massa, though Schiaretti himself is remaining neutral
Other JxC figures, including Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, María Eugenia Vidal, and Elisa Carrió have also indicated that they would not be supporting either candidate
Massa announced state-sponsored insurance for platform workers (Buenos Aires Herald)
Delivery app workers will be able to access state-sponsored insurance as of December 15 for a 60-day test run, with the potential of introducing the initiative to the legislature
These workers have generally aligned themselves with Milei, making this initiative a potential ploy by Massa to regain certain votes ahead of the runoff election
Economics
2023 elections in Argentina: market expectations for the dollar post-ballotage (Bloomberg Línea)
Bank of America projects the official dollar rate to be at $681 by the end of the year, up from the current $350
Argentina, Colombia, and Bolivia, among the emerging economies worst prepared for a global crisis (El País)
A report by the Center for Global Development (CGD) found that Argentina is the world’s second-most vulnerable economy, behind Sri Lanka
The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have left Argentina, among other emerging economies, with weakened resources and capacities to respond to global emergencies
Argentina pays US$840 million in interest to International Monetary Fund (Buenos Aires Times)
On Monday, Argentina paid an additional $840 million in interest to the IMF
It is expected that this payment be carried out with yuan from Argentina’s currency swap with China, to avoid a further devaluation of the peso
Argentina's Massa planning IMF talks over US$12 billion due next year (Buenos Aires Times)
If elected on November 19, Massa will try to open talks with the IMF over the $12 billion in maturities Argentina owes the Fund over the next six months
Central Bank reserves currently stand at $21.861 billion, with some experts believing the net level is significantly lower
Massa announces Argentina will freezes fuel levies until February 2024 (Buenos Aires Times)
The freeze, which was supposed to have ended on Wednesday, will be extended for three months in an effort to stop fuel prices from rising
Buenos Aires City inflation cooled to 9.4% in October (Buenos Aires Herald)
Despite a 2.6% drop in Consumer Price Index since September, when inflation reached 12%, annual inflation has reached 146%
Sectors that saw large price hikes included educational costs, housing and utilities, and clothing and shoes
Official inflation data for October is set to be published on November 13, less than a week before the runoff election
IDB to finance a bridge in Argentina with US$1 billion loan (Buenos Aires Herald)
Two loans from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) for a total of $1.4 billion are set to finance the construction of a bridge connecting the Chaco and Corrientes provinces
The bridge, which will help spur economic development and integration in Northeastern Argentina, is set to be used by 88,000 people daily, with 9.5 million people benefiting indirectly from it
Lithium + Energy
Argentina’s lithium dilemma (Perfíl)
Environmentalists have questioned what Argentina’s role should be vis-à-vis lithium exploitation, taking into consideration the environmental effects of the practice
Despite the role that lithium could play in creating a more sustainable environment and reducing dependence on fossil fuels, its extraction process requires high quantities of water, which could harm local communities already struggling with water scarcity
Hxagon provides risk analysis and bespoke investigations in emerging and frontier markets, primarily in Latin America. If you are interested in our work or acquiring our services, do not hesitate to contact us!
Contact: info@hxagon.com
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