Argentina Politics Update - 7 June 2023
Espert to join JxC coalition, increase in currency swap with China, "Swiftonomics" reaches Argentina
Politics
Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich settled the incorporation of José Luis Espert to Juntos por el Cambio (Ámbito, Infobae)
Buenos Aires City Mayor and presidential candidate Horacio Rodriguez Larreta believes broadening the coalition will help Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) secure additional votes in both the PASO primaries and the October general elections
Espert, of the Avanza Libertad party, was informed by Zoom on Tuesday night that he would be invited to join the coalition
Former Security Minister and presidential candidate Patricia Bullrich was originally hesitant to expand the JxC coalition to additional parties, as she believes that Larreta’s intention of broadening the base, especially with Espert, is part of a potential plan by Larreta to steal votes from Bullrich during the country’s PASO primary elections in August
Rodríguez Larreta says JxC discussing alliances with Schiaretti, Espert and Stolbizer (Buenos Aires Herald)
Juan Schiaretti, a non-Kirchernist Peronist, José Luis Espert, of the Avanza Libertad party, and Margarita Stolbizer, a centrist, have all been the subject of talks of a potential alliance with the opposition JxC coalition
Patricia Bullrich, one of JxC’s frontrunning candidates, is strongly opposed to bringing non-Kirchnerist Peronists into the coalition, differentiating her campaign strategy from other JxC frontrunner Horacio Rodriguez Larreta and potentially further dividing the coalition
Identity crisis in Argentina’s largest opposition alliance (El País, Buenos Aires Herald)
Former president Mauricio Macri is opposed to Larreta’s decision to include Juan Schiaretti in the JxC coalition, believing it “puts the entire [coalition] system in a crisis.”
Macri’s public support for Bullrich has caused some internal divisions within the coalition
Coalitions must announce party alliances by June 14, and presidential candidates must register by June 24
Ruling internal infighting burns: massismo calls Daniel Scioli “irresponsible” (La Nación)
Cecilia Moureau, president of the Chamber of Deputies and Sergio Massa’s right hand in the Frente Renovador party, called Argentine Ambassador to Brazil and presidential candidate Daniel Scioli “irresponsible” for campaigning while not securing credit loans nor additional development options for the country in his role as Ambassador
The ruling Frente de Todos (FdT) coalition has not yet unified behind a single presidential candidate, and differs on strategy ahead of the country’s PASO primary elections
Argentine judge dismisses long-running corruption case against vice president (AP, Buenos Aires Times)
Prosecutors and state agencies found there was no evidence vice president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) was involved in a crime in the ‘Ruta K’ case that “involved alleged kickbacks and money laundering on behalf of Fernández’s family by businessman Lázaro Báez”
“Argentina’s judiciary has little credibility, which means voters will likely interpret the ruling as a ratification of their political leanings: either that the former president is the victim of judicial persecution, or that she pressured the court into letting her off the hook,” writes Jordana Timerman in the Latin America Daily Briefing.
Elections in Argentina: what provinces vote this weekend and what happened in San Juan (Bloomberg Línea, La Nación)
San Luis and Tucumán will vote for a governor, while Mendoza holds a PASO primary election to determine who the candidates will be for the governorship in the general elections on September 24
The provinces will also elect legislators, mayors, and councilmembers, among other posts
Corrientes will elect legislators, 15 deputies and 5 senators, as well as 75 councilmembers
San Juan’s suspended elections were confirmed for July 2
Córdoba and Formosa will head to the polls on June 25
Supreme Court rejects San Juan governor’s candidacy (Buenos Aires Herald)
As covered previously, the Supreme Court suspended regional elections in San Juan in response to Sergio Uñac’s attempt to run for an unconstitutional third term
The Constitution establishes four-year term limits for governor and vice governor, with a maximum of two consecutive reelections
Uñac, who had been vice governor and then governor, had been running for a third consecutive term
On June 1 the Supreme Court ruled officially that Uñac would be ineligible to run for the governorship during these elections, but would be eligible again in 2027
Crece el número de venezolanos en la Argentina y en Juntos por el Cambio salen a la caza de esos votos clave (Infobae, via Americas Migration Brief)
Of the 220,000 Venezuelan migrants in Argentina, between 80-90,000 are eligible to vote in this year’s election
JxC believes there are ideological similarities between their coalition and Venezuelan migrants, and are aiming to turn some of those similarities into votes
Incoming UN climate agency chief Celeste Saulo forecasts wind of change (Buenos Aires Times)
The head of Argentina’s Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional was overwhelmingly voted last Thursday as incoming head of the World Meteorological Organization, and will be the first female to lead the organization
Saulo plans to focus on local implementation of global decisions
Economics
With Brazil’s backing, Argentina wins acceptance to BRICS bank (Buenos Aires Times)
Dilma Rousseff, president of the BRICS’s New Development Bank (NDB), announced that Argentina’s entry into the bank would be approved in August, and is already approved by the institution’s board of directors
“The surprise announcement opens up a new window of opportunity enabling the country to obtain direct financing to sort out the problems of the Central Bank’s foreign currency restrictions.”
Taylor Swift Argentina Tickets Are a Bargain With Inflation Over 100% (Bloomberg, El País)
Taylor Swift announced two shows in Buenos Aires - later adding a third show - for her historic first visit to Argentina
Argentina’s informal exchange rate, coupled with high inflation, offer interesting case studies of “Swiftonomics” and the lessons the singer is offering in supply and demand
The peso’s devaluation is making foreigners - willing to pay significantly for tickets - consider flying to Argentina solely for the show
Argentina doubles China currency swap access to $10 bln (Reuters via Latin America Daily Briefing)
The agreement will help Argentina boost its dwindling foreign reserves
The 130 billion yuan ($18.4 billion) swap line between the two countries was renewed for three more years
In distorted Buenos Aires rental market, it's dollar vs peso (Buenos Aires Times)
Property owners no longer want to receive rent in pesos, given the currency’s volatility, and instead prefer to collect rent in dollars, making it increasingly difficult for locals to find apartments as they lose out to foreigners
A 2020 law that limited rent increases to once a year and established contracts for a minimum of three years is also hurting landlords
World Bank predicts recession for Argentina (Página 12, Télam)
The economy is expected to fall 2% in 2023
The organization believes Argentina’s economy will recover 2.3% in 2024
Lithium
Argentina Lithium & Energy reports positive results from ninth exploration well at Rincon West (Proactive)
The “ninth exploration hole returned the highest peak lithium value and longest concentrated brine interval reported to date on the Rincon West project,” located in the province of Salta, according to Argentina Lithium vice president of exploration Miles Rideout
Argentina says Chinese miner latest to bet big on lithium riches (Zawya)
The economy ministry announced last week a $1.7 billion investment for the development of two lithium projects in the country by Chinese miner Tibet Summit Resources
Both flats are located in the province of Salta, though no timeline for beginning operations has yet been announced
Argentina has two major lithium projects in the province of Jujuy, and a third is expected to come online this month
____________________________________________________________________________
Hxagon provides risk analysis and bespoke investigations in emerging and frontier markets, primarily in Latin America. If you are interested in our work or acquiring our services, do not hesitate to contact us!
Contact: info@hxagon.com
~~~
If you have any feedback or comments regarding the newsletter, or would just like to connect, feel free to reach out!