Argentina Politics Update - 28 June 2023
Sergio Massa announced as Peronist presidential candidate, economic impact of a potential pro-market president, Milei's numbers continue to drop
With the deadline of coalition lists and presidential candidates officially having passed, here are the final main presidential tickets:
Unión por la Patria (UxP):
Economy Minister Sergio Massa and Chief of Staff Agustín Rossi
Juntos por el Cambio (JxC):
Buenos Aires City mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Jujuy governor Gerardo Morales
Former security minister Patricia Bullrich and former Mendoza deputy Luis Petro
Libertad Avanza:
Deputy Javier Milei and deputy Victoria Villarruel
Politics
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner publicly backs Sergio Massa, but still airs discontent (Buenos Aires Times)
CFK publicly supported Economy Minister Sergio Massa’s presidential bid, despite the fact that the announcement caused a candidacy withdrawal of her preferred candidate, Eduardo “Wado” de Pedro
The UxP coalition will now participate in the PASO primaries under a single candidate, as CFK had originally wanted
Cabinet meeting, live: Alberto Fernández, Sergio Massa, and Wado de Pedro participate in the meeting in the Casa Rosada (Infobae)
The beginning of the cabinet meeting was met with applause for Sergio Massa and Agustín Rossi
Alberto Fernández offered public support for Massa
Massa crítica: how Argentina’s election tickets affect power balance (Buenos Aires Herald)
Various political analysts offer their views on the Peronist coalition ticket, with some opining that “we are witnessing the first sign of Kirchner’s loss of her power of influence,” given that the coalition overrode her preferred presidential ticket and chose a different ticket instead
The latest poll by Opina Argentina, conducted more than two weeks ago, had Larreta and Bullrich at an almost tie
Ruling parties of Formosa and Córdoba win provincial elections (Buenos Aires Herald)
Peronist (but not Kirchnerista) Martín Llaryora won his reelection bid for mayor of Córdoba
Current Peronist Formosa governor Gildo Insafrán also won his reelection bid
The battle begins between Bullrich and Larreta for control of the opposition (La Nación)
Recent polls show there is no clear favorite between the two opposition candidates, and no clear characteristics differentiating either of their supporters
La Nación does a deep dive into the current institutional support for both Larreta and Bullrich, from mayors to governors in provinces across the country
19 out of the country’s 24 provinces will have divided lists going into the elections, with different internal candidates for legislators and/or senators under the JxC coalition banner
In Buenos Aires Province, in particular, Larreta and Bullrich are supporting different candidates, with the former supporting Diego Santilli and the latter supporting Néstor Grindetti
Though Bullrich has more support than Larreta from various mayors in the Buenos Aires Province (34 compared to 19), Larreta holds a slight advantage in voter intent in terms of population (42.5% compared to 40%)
Argentina’s rightward shift will cause turbulence following the elections (Perfil)
It is likely that CFK will maintain influence in Congress as well as the Buenos Aires Province, which could cause political gridlock in certain situations should her coalition’s candidate not win the presidential election
Argentina opposition leads in analysis of polls, Clarín says (Buenos Aires Times, Clarín)
An average of seven polls showed the Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) coalition leading with 29.1% of voter intention, UxP receiving 26.1%, and Milei’s libertarians coming in third with 19.2%
A new poll by CB Consultora Opinión Política, which is set to be formally released in a few days, shows Patricia Bullrich in the lead with 48.3%
The Milei-Villarruel ticket falls into a clear third place in polls ahead of the PASO primaries, with the party reaching 17.2% compared to JxC’s 33.8% and UxP’s 29.1%
US believes lack of hard K candidates in the presidential race is a “positive” (Clarín)
A more moderate candidate such as Sergio Massa is likely to appeal to US investors and is seen as a “positive” sign for the bilateral relationship
“A victory by traditional Peronism or by Juntos por el Cambio won’t put the relationship with the US at risk,” says Benjamin Gedan
Next in line for the chopping block (Buenos Aires Times)
In order to get the country back on track, Argentina’s next government will to implement strict government spending cuts and an increase in foreign investment; whether or not the reduction of handouts will result in social and political unrest will remain to be seen
Economics
Argentina Investors Say Massa Optimism Offers Brief Respite (Bloomberg)
Pro-market Economy Minister Sergio Massa’s announcement of a presidential run caused a direct increase in Argentine bond values, reaching their highest values since March
“Massa’s strengths are diluted by the state of the economy. A possible advantage of Massa’s candidacy for the government coalition is that he could potentially grab a larger share of the votes in the center in a runoff than a pure Kirchnerist candidate would,” says Pilar Tavella
Sergio Massa: “An obsession the next president must have is paying the IMF and removing it from Argentina, never to return” (Ámbito Financiero)
The Economy Minister confirmed that the results of Argentina’s recent negotiations with the IMF to adjust payment deadlines would be made public this week
The ministry is also expected to announce the roadmap for the country’s relationship with the IMF for the next six months
Massa also announced his four economic pillars:
Fiscal order
Commercial surplus
Exchange rate competitiveness
Development and inclusion
JP Spinetto: As Argentina turns right, prepare for turbulence (Buenos Aires Times)
“It’s likely that the next Argentine government will be more business-friendly than the Peronist left-wing coalition that has governed the country for four chaotic years”
Positive signs for Argentina’s economy during the next administration:
Expected recovery from the historic drought that affected exports this year
Two policy successes from the Alberto Fernández government:
Increase in hydrocarbon production
Mining boom
Policy malpractice is Argentina’s main deterrent for getting its economy back on track, and though presidential candidates appear to be more market-friendly, it is too soon to tell what economic effect any of them will have
Is it finally time to invest in Argentina, stuck between heaven and hell? (Buenos Aires Times)
Argentina’s stocks have begun to rally in 2023, a trend that is expected to continue
The country’s next government is likely to implement austere spending measures, which in turn will likely generate social and political unrest
Alberto Fernández seals deals with Brazil to finance exports for Argentina (Buenos Aires Times)
President Alberto Fernández met with his Brazilian counterpart in Brasília this week, securing additional funding from the BNDES (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social) development bank for the next leg of the Néstor Kirchner pipeline and the potential creation of a blanket financial line between the two countries
Lithium + Energy
Government advances project to industrialize lithium in the country (Cronista)
Secretary of Strategic Affairs Mercedes Marcó de Pont confirmed the government’s plan to introduce a bill that would establish the promotion of the industrialization of lithium
The bill aims to alter the “current rules of the game” regarding the industry and prevent extractivism, and would also spur local industrialization
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