Argentina Politics Update - 21 June 2023
Alleged femicide influences Chaco elections, violent clashes in Jujuy, flourishing dining scene despite 114% inflation
Coalition lists closed last week, formalizing party alliances ahead of the August 13 PASO primary elections. Presidential hopefuls will have until June 24 to register their candidacies.
Juntos por el Cambio (JxC): Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and former security minister Patricia Bullrich continue to lead the race within the JxC opposition coalition. Larreta maintains his “centrist” rhetoric and aims to seek alliances with non-Kirchnerista Peronists (despite internal backlash, as reported last week), while Bullrich announced she would seek a legislative alliance with Javier Milei’s ultra-right Libertad Avanza party.
Milei: The libertarian candidate continues to face political organization challenges nationally, with his party - Libertad Avanza - candidates underperforming in various provincial elections. The movement remains all about him.
Unión por la Patria (UP): The formerly-named Frente de Todos Peronist coalition remains divided, with Interior Minister Eduardo “Wado” de Pedro sluggishly leading the charge and Ambassador to Brazil Daniel Scioli counting on President Alberto Fernández’s support.
Politics
Peronsim loses grip of provincial stronghold after shocking political murder in Argentina (The Brazilian Report, Buenos Aires Times)
Sunday’s election in the province of Chaco - a Peronist stronghold in the north - saw Peronist governor Jorge Capitanich receive only 36.5% of votes, forcing a run-off election on September 17
Though Capitanich remained the candidate with the most individual votes, both JxC candidates combined reached 42.6% of the vote
The disappearance and probable murder of Cecilia Strzyzowski by a powerful local family with ties to the Peronist party are likely the cause of the sudden sharp decline in votes and support for Capitanich
Peronism’s Tetris (Cenital, via Latin America Daily Briefing)
“Abstention and null votes in the thirteen provinces that have voted thus far increased by eight percent over the 2019 elections,” and “participation decreased by an average of five percent”
Accusations fly after violent clashes between security forces, protesters in Jujuy (Buenos Aires Times, Buenos Aires Herald, Buenos Aires Herald)
Protests over reforms to the local constitution in the northern province of Jujuy turned violent yesterday, with violent clashes between the police and indigenous and social organizations
The protests began over a clause in the new constitutional reform that prohibits "street and road blockades, as well as any disturbance to the right to free movement of persons and the improper occupation of public buildings"
Jujuy’s opposition Governor Gerardo Morales accused Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) of inciting the unrest, following allegations that “Kirchnerite groups” not from Jujuy had come to the province to spur civil unrest
Both Fernández and CFK fired back at the Governor, placing responsibility on him for the violence and demanding he “take charge and stop the repressive madness”
The Inter-American Commission on Human Rights is following the events in Jujuy with “concern” and urged the state to respect the right to protest
Public Opinion Poll (Management & Fit)
JxC continues to lead voter intention, with 32.2% of the population intending to vote for the opposition coalition in the upcoming elections
Milei’s Libertad Avanza party had the highest voter intent for voters under 40 years of age, with 18.9%
Buenos Aires Mayor and JxC presidential candidate Horacio Rodríguez Larreta polled the highest in voter intent for the August PASO primaries, ahead of Javier Milei (19.7% to 17.1%)
If elected, what do the ruling and the opposition coalitions say they will do? (Buenos Aires Herald)
Coalitions presented their non-binding electoral platforms to the Electoral Court last Friday
Unión por la Patria (formerly Frente de Todos)
“Get out of the bi-monetary economy,” with a focus on a societal pact among sectors
The document strongly criticizes the $44 billion agreement with the IMF, reached during the previous administration under opposition leader Mauricio Macri
Strengthening labor rights, including “recovering salaries and pensions’ purchasing power, guaranteeing and defending current labor rights as well as promoting new ones, stabilizing prices without affecting employment level, recovering workers’ salaries’ participation in the national income, demonopolizing and stimulating competition”
Much of the document is centered around the idea of dialogue and the need to sit down and discuss some of the country’s most pressing issues
Juntos por el Cambio
Specific proposals for the economy, security, and labor, among others
The document specifically calls for the need to “move towards a rapid unification of the exchange rate.”
It also proposes doing away with the current system of import controls
Of all JxC candidates, only Patricia Bullrich has considered adding the US dollar as a national currency in addition to the Argentine peso
Argentina’s political hegemony crumbles in the face of primaries (Buenos Aires Times)
The country’s traditional and stubborn political makeup of Peronists + Kirchneristas on one side and anti-Peronists and Radicals on the other has paved way for political outsider Javier Milei, who “made his way into the mainstream on the back of an anti-system message that channels society’s anger”
The PASO primary elections that “function essentially as a first-round vote in what has become a de facto three-round election” leaves significant uncertainty on the table and could lead to unexpected outcomes, argues Agustino Fontevecchia
Javier Milei’s candidate for Buenos Aires province drops out (Buenos Aires Herald)
Chivilcoy Mayor Guillermo Britos, who had been offered a place under Milei’s Libertad Avanza party, confirmed he would not be running for governor of Buenos Aires and would instead run for another term as mayor of Chivilcoy
Cornejo won Mendoza’s PASO, but he doesn’t have it that easy (Cenital)
Facundo Cruz analyzes the history of Mendoza’s provincial elections, and assesses the warning signs of an internal division within the province’s Radical base
Argentina’s Election and the Future of its Foreign Relations (Wilson Center)
“There is little consensus in Argentina regarding core foreign policy questions, such as the value of free trade agreements, the right approach to dictatorships in the region, such as in Venezuela, and the appropriate response to Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine,” says Benjamin Gedan
Economics
Analysis: Argentina faces crunch IMF talks to defuse looming debt bomb (Reuters)
An imminent meeting between Economy Minister Sergio Massa and the IMF will aim to reestablish talks between Argentina and the multilateral institution and will seek to accelerate IMF disbursements
Upcoming elections are likely to play a role as the government decides what austerity measures (if any) it will agree to
The country’s bonds, though having increased in value over the past months, are still in “distressed territory”
An anonymous Argentine banker referred to the country’s slightly-cooled economic indicators for May and said, “It is like the sick patient with a fever that has gone down slightly. But the patient is still sick and still has a fever."
Argentina annual inflation hits 114% but monthly rate slows unexpectedly (Reuters)
INDEC, the country’s statistics agency, reported last week that May’s consumer price index (CPI) reached 7.8%, 1.1% below analyst estimates and 0.6% below April’s recorded CPI
Inflation also clocked in at below the 116.1% estimates, meaning that the Central Bank could potentially avoid another interest rate hike
Spend now, worry later: no point saving in inflation-stricken Argentina (New York Times, Buenos Aires Times)
With inflation at 114% and prices of consumer goods rising almost daily, saving becomes almost impossible
Argentines are rushing to spend their pesos before they devalue even further, choosing to eat out more often and spurring a growing dining scene
Lithium + Energy
Argentina’s Growing Lithium Industry Hits Export Records (Bloomberg)
Exports in may rose to $60 million, a 17% increase from the same time last year
19% of mining exports in May were attributed to lithium
“Between January and May, lithium exports rose to $369 million, up 84% from last year’s same period and also a record for those five months, according to the mining secretariat.”
Argentina begins filling the new Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline (Buenos Aires Times)
The pipeline, which began to be filled yesterday and will take approximately 20 days to complete, is projected to save Argentina $1.7 billion from gas imports this year and another $4 billion next year
The pipeline could also present a political win for the Peronists who are struggling in the polls ahead of the October elections
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