Argentina Politics Update - 20 September 2023
Tucker Carlson interviews Milei, Bullrich down in the polls, CFK faces new judiciary hurdles
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Politics
Tucker Carlson erupts into Argentina's presidential campaign with Javier Milei interview (ABC News)
During the interview, libertarian candidate Javier Milei called climate change part of a “socialist agenda” and praised former US president Donald Trump for “fight[ing] against socialism”
Carlson has previously interviewed global leaders whose actions have leaned towards authoritarianism, including Hungary’s Victor Orbán and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele
Milei also continued his attacks on the Pope, calling him a “communist” who supports dictators, and reiterated that he would not engage in business with China
Poll: Javier Milei growing ahead of election, Sergio Massa on rise, Patricia Bullrich takes a dive (Buenos Aires Times)
A new poll by Opina Argentina predicts a run-off between Javier Milei and Economy Minister and ruling Unión por la Patria (UxP) candidate Sergio Massa
Massa had previously been polling third, behind Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) opposition candidate Patricia Bullrich; according to this poll, he has risen by 2 points, up to 29% from 27%
Bullrich has dropped to 25%, down from the 28% received in the primaries
Director of Opina Argentina, Facundo Nejamkis, said “we found no significant voter migration [with Massa], as was the case from Patricia Bullrich to Javier Milei.”
Milei’s positive image polls at 43% and his negative image at 52%; Bullrich’s positive image polls at 36% and her negative image of 61%; Massa’s positive image polls at 34% and his negative image at 64%
Bullrich and the JxC opposition coalition have not managed to decide on a communication strategy following the PASO primaries, meaning some of her voters are turning towards Milei and others who voted against her in the primaries are turning towards Massa
Her recent communication strategy seems to be focused on combating the Kirchnerite UxP coalition and ignoring Milei
Sergio Massa seeks to assert leadership of ruling Peronist coalition (Buenos Aires Times)
Massa continues to distance himself from current president Alberto Fernández, of his same coalition, and espouses messages that “emphasise that Massa is the boss now, that there are no internal differences (although there are) and that the coalition is united.”
Argentina's lower house passes bill to reduce taxes on wealthy (Reuters)
The move would result in a loss of $2.8 billion for the state
Critics and opposition lawmakers argue that the timing of the bill’s introduction is political, as Economy Minister Sergio Massa seeks to garner increased support ahead of the October 22 elections
Milei voted in favor of the government-backed bill, though he questioned its timing
Juntos por el Cambio dethrones Jorge Capitanich in Chaco (Buenos Aires Times)
Sixteen years of Kirchnerite rule in the northern province of Chaco ended last Sunday with the victory of JxC candidate Leandro Zdero in the gubernatorial elections
This was an important win for the JxC coalition, whose internal fighting and lack of ideological direction have resulted in presidential candidate Patricia Bullrich dropping in the polls
Argentina’s former detention and torture site added to UNESCO World Heritage list (AP)
The ESMA Museum of Sight and Memory, the former Navy School of Mechanics which during the country’s military dictatorship had served as an illegal detention center, was added to the list of sites “considered to be of outstanding value to humanity”
Argentina has taken significant strides to bring justice for the crimes of the dictatorship, holding almost 300 trials relating to crimes against humanity since 2006
Victoria Villarruel, running mate of libertarian candidate Javier Milei, has frequently attempted to downplay the effects of the military dictatorship and is against bringing former military officials to trial
President Alberto Fernández uses final UNGA address to reiterate IMF, Malvinas demands (Buenos Aires Times)
President Alberto Fernández publicly requested the IMF end its practice of charging surcharges to indebted countries, calling the policy “shameful”
The interest rate for Argentina’s debt with the IMF has risen to 8.033% from 4.033%
Double judicial setback for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Buenos Aires Times, Buenos Aires Herald)
The Federal Criminal Cassation Chamber, Argentina’s highest criminal court, revoked the 2021 dismissals of charges in two major legal cases, the “Hotsesur-Los Sauces” graft case and a case alleging former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) and other former government officials from covering up the crimes of the perpetrators of the 1994 AMIA Jewish community center bombing
The Court ordered oral trial proceedings to be held, though it is likely for CFK to appeal and for the cases to reach the Supreme Court
CFK has been charged in several corruption cases, some of which have been dismissed and others still ongoing
In December, CFK was sentenced to six years in prison - which she will not serve due to protection for immunity - and a lifetime ban from holding political office
Economics
Analysis: IMF has a tough call on Argentina: force major reforms or pull the plug (Reuters)
Argentina has already negotiated 22 programs with the IMF with the latest, reached in 2022, resulting in a $44 billion refinancing loan
With poverty on the rise, a new IMG program (if reached) should take into consideration the social implications for Argentine citizens
IMF policies towards Argentina have begun to be criticized by the multinational institution's own executive board who complain that Argentina has received preferential treatment, especially when compared to other emerging market nations who have also been forced to devalue their currencies and adopt stricter fiscal measures under IMF programs
Argentina's economy shrinks for first time in nearly three years (Bloomberg, Reuters)
The economy shrank 4.9% in the second quarter of 2023
GDP dropped 2.8% in the second quarter, compared to the first quarter
The agriculture sector dropped 40.2% compared to the same period last year, due mostly to a months-long historic drought that severely affected the country’s agricultural exports resulting in a $20 billion loss
Argentina inflation hits 124% as cost-of-living crisis sharpens (Reuters, Reuters)
Inflation has reached its highest level since 1991
Poverty levels are over 40%
A new poll from a central bank analyst predicts inflation will reach 169% by the end of the year
The Central Bank (BCRA) has maintained the 118% interest rate, despite increased inflation, likely due to the high political cost of raising the key rate
The BCRA is notoriously not an independent institution
A tale of two central banks as Uruguay rises and Argentina slides (Reuters)
Economic problems in Argentina used to directly impact Uruguay given the direct “link” between both financial systems; now, Uruguay is more resilient against Argentina’s declining economy
"Uruguay is an example of how better institutions can change the economy,” says Uruguay’s central bank chief Diego Labat
Lithium + Energy
Lithium, a key resource for Argentina’s development (El Cronista)
Argentina currently has 3 lithium projects in the production stages and 5 more under construction
All of the projects are located in the northern provinces of Salta, Jujuy, and Catamarca
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