Argentina Politics Update - 19 July 2023

Jul 19, 2023

Politics

Argentina's presidential hopefuls compete for votes and followers on social media (Buenos Aires Times)

Libertarian Javier Milei has the largest social media (Twitter, Instagram, Tik Tok, Facebook) presence of all presidential candidates, with 4.16 million followers across all accounts
In second place is Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) opposition candidate Horacio Rodríguez Larreta with almost 3.6 million followers, the majority of those on Twitter
Third is Economy Minister and Unión por la Patria’s (UP) candidate, with almost 3 million followers
- Massa is the least social-media savvy candidate, though he makes up for it with “good old-fashioned politics”
- Massa also tends to be at the center of the media and digital conversation, given his position as Economy Minister
JxC candidate Patricia Bullrich comes in fourth place, with just over 2.6 million followers across all of her accounts

Opposition landslide in Santa Fe as Rodríguez Larreta's man trounces Bullrich's Losada (Buenos Aires Times)

The Unidas para Cambiar opposition coalition in the Santa Fe province accumulated 63% of the vote, compared to the Juntos Avancemos ruling Peronist coalition’s 28%
Within the Unidas para Cambiar coalition, former provincial Security minister Maximilano Pullaro (supported by Larreta) beat Senator Carolina Losada (supported by Bullrich) with more than half of the coalition’s vote

Who responds to polls? The Santa Fe PASO revived a debate on survey limitations (La Nación)

Though polls generally showed a Unidos para Cambiar opposition win over the Juntos Avancemos Peronists, they severely underestimated Maximiliano Pullaro, who won with 32.5% of the votes (polls did not have him above 22%)
Political analyst and president of Synopsis consulting firm Lucas Romero believes that the low response rate on polls distorts any poll’s actual findings, explaining that “those who respond [to polls] are the most politicized”
- For example, “Bullrich flies” within the politicized space
Polls tend not to reflect more centrist and moderate electorates
Management and Fit director Mariel Fornoni notes that there are more and more “no responses” in response to polling questions

What Will Massa Do for Argentina’s Ruling Peronists? (Latin America Advisor)

“By anointing Massa as the coalition’s unity candidate, however, Peronist pooh-bahs accomplished two important objectives: sidestepping a primary brawl in August and downplaying Kirchner’s most divisive and least electable wing of the coalition,” writes Benjamin Gedan

Sergio Massa will visit CGT headquarters, a sign that he will seek to gain the votes of workers (Infobae)

The CGT is the largest and most influential syndicate in the country, and generally allies with the Peronist movement

Candidacy-buying allegations pile pressure on Javier Milei (Buenos Aires Times)

Additional allegations are surfacing about Milei selling spots on his party’s electoral list for up to $50,000
Milei continues to deny any wrongdoing, and claims he is a victim of a defamation campaign by the opposition

The Argentine paradox becomes ever more explicit (Buenos Aires Times)

“It isn’t clear whether we are living in an Argentina that is on the cusp of a revolution that will see the nation finally thrive or if the weight of its problems are such that even the grace of fortune, filling the land with precious natural resources, will be insufficient to create the “Argentine miracle” that has remained elusive for decades,” writes Agustino Fontevecchia
According to a poll aggregator, UP is expected to take nearly 30% of the vote in the elections, a significant comeback for a coalition whose chances of reelection seemed slim at best
JxC is expected to earn around 35% of the vote, while Milei is now polling below 20%

AMIA Bombing: 29 Years Later, Demand for Justice Remains Strong (Buenos Aires Times)

The Jewish community of Argentina continues to push for justice and answers following the 1994 terrorist attack against a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people and left more than 300 wounded
“Among the political figures in attendance at the event were three of the leading candidates running for Mayor of Buenos Aires: Martin Lousteau (UCR), Jorge Macri (PRO), and Leandro Santoro (Unión por la Patria)”

Economics

Argentina Expects to Reach IMF Staff-Level Agreement Friday (Bloomberg, Buenos Aires Times)

An Argentine delegation arrived in Washington on Tuesday morning to close negotiations
Argentina owes the IMF about $2.6 billion by the end of July

Inflation in Argentina slowed to 6% in June, reveals INDEC (Buenos Aires Times)

It is the second consecutive deceleration in two months
In the past year, prices have increased by 115.6%
- Prices have increased by 50.7% since January 2023

Larreta proposes ‘zero deficit’ in 2024 to fight inflation (Buenos Aires Herald)

Larreta announced his 8-point plan to lower inflation, which includes the gradual elimination of currency controls and bringing the fiscal deficit to zero within his first year in office
He also proposed modifying the Central Bank’s charter, in an attempt to make it more independent from the federal government

Argentina Nears Recession After Output Shrank More Than Expected (Bloomberg)

“Economic activity declined 5.5% from a year ago, the deepest contraction since 2020 and exceeding the 3.4% median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg”
The Central Bank expects the country’s GDP to shrink 3% by the end of this year

Peso Devaluation Would Be ‘Very Damaging,’ Argentina Leader Says (Bloomberg)

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, president Alberto Fernández warned against a fast devaluation of the peso, a situation that is likely to occur under a new government, regardless of which candidate wins the presidency

Lithium + Energy

Lithium: production will grow 50% in 2023, with new projects and amplifications (Ámbito Financiero)

Australian firm Allkem announced on Tuesday it had concluded the first part of its production project in Jujuy
The Mining Secretariat plans to have four new projects by 2024 which, if effective, would triple the production of lithium from 2022
Lithium production is expected to hit 60,000 tons by the end of the year (compared to 38,000 tons the previous year)

A multimillion-dollar Argentine family invests in clean energy (Perfíl)

Corporación América Internacional, a proprietary conglomerate, is set to invest $112 million in an ammonia plant in Burgos, Spain
The Eurnekian family, which leads the petroleum and gas production sector of the holding, is investing in “green” ammonia and hopes to sell the product by 2027

Road to the Casa Rosada