Argentina Politics Update - 15 November 2023
Runoff election on Sunday, polls show "wide open" race, future of China-Argentina relations
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Argentina will once again head to the polls on Sunday, November 19 for a runoff election, with voters choosing between Economy Minister Sergio Massa and libertarian outsider Javier Milei to be the country’s next president. Tune in on Monday for an analysis of the second-round results, and what Argentina is likely to experience in the coming months.
Politics
Argentina pollsters read tea leaves with presidential election 'wide open' (Reuters, Atlas Intel)
Most polls show Milei with a slight advantage heading into the November 19 runoff election, though his lead falls within the margin of error
“One has to consider what happened in the primary election and in the general election: movements of four or five points in the last week, or even in the last three to four days,” says Shila Vikler, director of consultancy Trespuntozero
Aresco, Universidad de San Andrés, and Atlas Intel all have Milei in a narrow lead by four points, six points, and four points, respectively
Analogías has Massa ahead by less than three points
Argentina's presidential rivals clash in key voter battlegrounds (Reuters)
Buenos Aires province and the province of Córdoba are key battlegrounds ahead of the November 19 ballotage
Nearly 10 million votes that had gone to other candidates in the first round are now in play, in addition to those who voted blank or spoiled their ballots
Argentina's fed-up farmers lean towards Javier Milei (Buenos Aires Times, Buenos Aires Times)
Farmers in Argentina’s grasslands are frustrated with continued excessive government controls and taxes on the agricultural industry, and turn towards Milei’s free market ideology in the hopes that a Milei presidency would loosen trade restrictions
Argentina’s agricultural industry represents almost a quarter of the country’s entire economy, while agricultural exports alone comprise 10% of national GDP
Javier Milei’s followers stir up spectre of fraud on social networks (Buenos Aires Times)
Milei and his followers have been promoting the narrative of electoral fraud, despite no evidence supporting their claim and no complaints having been filed by the La Libertad Avanza party itself (or any other party)
The former National Director of Elections, Alejandro Tullio, compared Milei’s current narrative to those of former US President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, both of whom carried out unfounded claims of electoral fraud to undermine the credibility of the elections
Argentina's conservatives gamble for survival on odd couple Milei and Macri (Reuters)
The center-right Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) coalition, faced with no candidates remaining in the second round of the election, made an uneasy alliance with Milei
Despite prominent coalition figures such as Mauricio Macri and Patricia Bullrich supporting the alliance with Milei, various other coalition members including Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and María Eugenia Vidal are opposed to the move, which could result in a reconfiguration of the bloc, depending on the election’s outcome
Progressive leaders express support for Sergio Massa in the ballotage against Javier Milei (Página 12, Infobae)
Massa counts on the support of Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, former Uruguayan president José Mujica, and Spanish president Pedro Sánchez, among other international leaders
Support from these countries is critical for Massa, as Spain is a key ally into the European market and Mexico and Brazil are the two largest economies in Latin America, in addition to having both regional and international weight
Milei is supported by a right-wing group called Foro de Madrid, whose members include former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, Chilean José María Kast, and Italian Georgia Meloni
The group also supports former US president Donald Trump
Former Colombian president Iván Duque, former Mexican presidents Felipe Calderón and Vicente Fox, and former Chilean president Sebastián Piñera have also publicly supported Milei’s bid for the presidency
Is Argentina the First A.I. Election? (New York Times, via Latin America Daily Briefing)
“A.I.’s prominent role in Argentina’s campaign and the political debate it has set off underscore the technology’s growing prevalence and show that, with its expanding power and falling cost, it is now likely to be a factor in many democratic elections around the globe.”
Argentina's football clubs condemn Macri and Milei's privatisation plans (Buenos Aires Times)
Almost every club in Argentina’s top soccer league, Liga Profesional de Fútbol, publicly condemned Milei’s plan to privatize local sporting institutions (clubs in Argentina are publicly owned, unlike sports clubs in the US and even Europe)
Milei announced he would be in favor of sports clubs becoming “Sociedad Anónimas,” or limited companies - a move highly supported by Mauricio Macri, who had pushed for the change during his tenure as Boca’s president (1995 - 2007) but was soundly defeated by the other clubs and the Argentine Football Association (AFA)
Milei has announced his support for Macri during the latter’s upcoming bid for the vice presidency of Boca Juniors, one of the country’s largest soccer clubs
Macri challenges Riquelme in battle for control of Boca Juniors (Buenos Aires Times)
Former Argentinian president (and former Boca Juniors president) Mauricio Macri will run for the vice presidency of Club Atlético Boca Juniors, challenging club idol Juan Román Riquelme, who is the club’s current vice president and will be vying for the top job in the club’s December 2 elections
Soccer clubs in Argentina have strong political influences, with Riquelme leaning towards more left-wing Peronist politics and Macri opting for his more conservative ideology
Electoral Court warns LLA has not provided enough ballots to polling stations (Buenos Aires Herald)
Each coalition is expected to provide ballots to polling stations; Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party has delivered a substantially lower number of ballots in their packages” compared to Massa’s Unión por la Patria (UxP) coalition
This means there are not enough ballots to distribute across municipalities to all of the polling desks, forcing “electoral authorities to take ballots out of the replacement packages or even from other municipalities to complete the necessary number of ballots in other polling desks.”
Fernando Cerimedo, technical representative for LLA, wrote on X (formerly Twitter), “There are more than enough ballots, we’re just not going to give them to the Kirchnerite thieves who handle their distribution.”
A look at post-election court cases awaiting Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (Buenos Aires Times)
Current vice president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) has a key court date scheduled for December 14, when the “Vialidad” corruption case - in which she has been convicted and sentenced - will reopen proceedings for CFK’s appeal
The following hearings will occur in April 2024
CFK also faces 26 cases currently open against her, and has had 27 cases previously concluded, according to the CIJ Judicial Information Center
CFK will also face two additional trials in criminal court for her government’s MOU with Iran in 2013 and the “Hotesur - Los Sauces” corruption case
Milei’s running mate proposes disbanding ESMA’s Museum of Memory (Buenos Aires Times, El País)
The former ESMA Navy Mechanics School, now housing a Museum of Memory to remember the clandestine torture and exterminations that occurred there during Argentina’s military dictatorship, was recognized as a World Heritage Site by UNESCO earlier this year
Victoria Villarruel, Milei’s running mate, suggested that the site would be better used as a school
Villarruel has previously engaged in controversial statements regarding the country’s military dictatorship and human rights, repeatedly questioning numbers cited by human rights groups as to the amount of people disappeared during the dictatorship and equating the actions of armed guerilla groups to those of the military junta
Economics
Argentina’s Election Isn’t Just High Stakes for Argentina — But for China, Too (Bloomberg)
Massa has strong ties to China and is seeking to deepen the relationship between the two countries, while Milei has vowed to end trade with “communist” countries like China
In the event of a Massa win, China would likely strengthen its position as one of the only sources of financing for Argentina; under a Milei presidency, China’s influence is likely to decrease significantly
China has an $18 billion currency swap line with Argentina, $6.5 billion of which was used last month, as it helps the country continue to avoid default
As Argentina's presidential run-off nears, Sergio Massa draws a yuan bridge to avoid IMF pressures (Buenos Aires Times)
No date has yet been chosen for a seventh review of the targets Argentina has set out to reach as part of its IMF program
An agreement with the IMF would liberate an additional $3.3 billion for Argentina for the rest of the year
Massa is expected to use yuans from Argentina’s currency swap line with China to avoid pressure from the IMF
Argentina has the highest inflation rate of Latin America (Perfíl)
Inflation rose 8.3% in October, according to the INDEC, surpassing Venezuela’s 6.7% increase
Venezuela’s interannual rate remains at 362%, higher than Argentina’s 143%
Argentina 2023 inflation seen at 185% -cenbank poll (Reuters)
The Central Bank announced on Monday that it expects annual inflation to reach 185% by the end of the year
It is estimated that monthly inflation will reach 11.5% in November
Tourism sector expands in Argentina, but asks for more certainty to operate (Bloomberg Línea)
The tourism sector requests stability in the exchange rate and in basic supplies in order to operate with normalcy
Lithium + Energy
Argentina's presidential candidates face $12 billion energy subsidy conundrum (Investing.com)
The government spends approximately $12 billion in state subsidies, keeping energy bills 15% below their actual cost for consumers
Massa has said he would keep energy costs low, despite IMF pleas to lower public spending, while Milei has announced he would gradually cut subsidies altogether
Subsidies neared 2% of GDP in 2022
Both candidates hope that Vaca Muerta, the country’s shale region, could help boost energy production and allow Argentina to become energy-independent
Argentine oil company YPF swings to loss amid dampened fuel prices (Reuters)
The company’s net loss in the third quarter reached $137 million, compared to a $693 million profit during the same period last year
A drop in local fuel prices in dollars partially explains the 16% drop in revenue from July to September
However, total oil and gas production increased 3% in the third quarter, and crude output grew by 5.4%
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