Argentina Politics Update - 14 June 2023
Midnight deadline for electoral coalitions, poor provincial performances by Milei's candidates, inflation to hit 149%
Political parties have until midnight tonight to present their electoral coalitions. The information below may become outdated after the newsletter’s publication. Be sure to check out next week’s edition for more updates.
Politics
Argentina 2023 elections: the close of electoral alliances, minute by minute (Página 12, Infobae)
Both the FdT and JxC coalitions do not rule out changing their coalition’s name ahead of the elections; in a country with a deep political divide, a name change may help attract new voters
Frente de Todos representative Eduardo López Wesselhoefft confirmed the coalition would be changing its name ahead of the elections, but that its colors of blue and yellow would remain the same
More tension in the opposition: Patricia Bullrich announced that if she wins she will form a legislative alliance with Javier Milei (Clarín)
On CNN radio, the presidential candidate announced she would seek an alliance with the Libertad Avanza party in order to effect change in the legislature
Argentine political blocs share spoils in regional elections as libertarians lag (Reuters, CNN en Español, Buenos Aires Times)
The ruling Frente de Todos (FdT) coalition won the governorship in Tucumán, while the opposition Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) coalition won in San Luis and Mendoza
In San Luis JxC pulled of an electoral upset, gaining control of the province after more than 40 years of Peronist rule
Candidates allied with libertarian presidential candidate Javier Milei underperformed once again in the latest provincial elections and foreshadow a potential drop in popularity and electability for Milei himself ahead of the October general elections
Has support for Javier Milei reached a ceiling? (Buenos Aires Times)
Milei’s candidates all across the country have been performing dismally in provincial elections, spurring political analysts and Milei’s own campaign team to wonder if his current status as front-runner will be able to last until the October election
No candidate of Milei’s has obtained more than 15% in a provincial election
Though polls continue to show a close three-way presidential race, voters are overwhelmingly opposing Milei’s proposed policies, including dollarization, allowing the free carry of guns, eliminating sex education in schools, privatizing public companies, and eliminating the Women, Gender & Diversity Ministry
All of these proposals were rejected by at least 63% of those polled
A premature agreement that frustrated and deepened the fall of Juntos por el Cambio (La Nación)
JxC presidential candidates Horacio Rodriguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich have opposing views on the expansion of the coalition
Constant internal fighting has contributed to the coalition’s drop in the polls
An announcement by Horacio Rodriguez Larreta that the coalition was in talks with non-Kirchnerist Peronist Juan Schiarretti caused significant backlash and halted any possibility of an alliance
However, a document released on Monday by JxC stressed the necessity of expanding the coalition
The fading lure of consensus politics (Buenos Aires Times)
James Neilson argues that the JxC coalition candidates should work together to highlight their similarities rather than their differences in order to avoid a Milei or FdT electoral win
'If there's a PASO, we'll be there,' Massa tells coalition allies (Buenos Aires Times)
The FdT coalition remains divided over its approach to the August PASO primary elections, unclear if the best strategy would be to unite behind a single candidate as opposed to letting voters decide
Economy Minister and potential presidential candidate Sergio Massa believes that the coalition should unite behind a single candidate, but in the event that does not occur, he confirmed his Frente Renovador party would be participating in the PASO
Speculation has increased in recent weeks that Massa would be resigning his position to launch a presidential campaign
Amidst mixed versions, Axel Kicillof resists reaching the closing of the lists as a candidate for reelection (Infobae)
Kicillof intends to remain in the race for reelection as the Buenos Aires Province governor, despite increasing rumors of a presidential run
Kicillof’s agenda this week brings him all around the province, though he will notably participate in an event with potential presidential candidate Sergio Massa tomorrow (Thursday)
Radical Party says it supports expanding JxC (Buenos Aires Herald)
The UCR’s position aligns with that of Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, who maintains his centrist position and aims to form alliances across the political spectrum
Governor Schiaretti says he will not join Juntos por el Cambio (Buenos Aires Herald)
The non-Kirchnerist Peronist rejected the possibility of joining JxC following internal and external backlash for the move from the opposition coalition
Odds and Ends (Latin America Risk Report)
James Bosworth argues that Bullrich is playing to voters’ security concerns better than most other candidates, and sees her as the frontrunner for the October elections in the current conditions
Economics
Argentina inflation seen hitting 149% this year, up from previous poll (Reuters)
In last month’s poll, inflation expectations had reached 126%
Inflation in April was 8.4%, and is expected to be at 9% for the month of May
Government hails ‘historic’ voluntary seven-trillion-peso debt swap (Buenos Aires Times)
The government carried out its third debt swap of the year, this one worth about $28.9 billion
“Forty-four percent of the peso-denominated debt is in the hands of the government and government agencies”
Just under 78% of of creditors signed up for the swap
Will Argentina Ditch the Peso for the Dollar? (Bloomberg)
More than 60% of the Argentine population opposes dollarization
Even if Milei wins the presidency, he will have a difficult time implementing a policy of dollarization, “starting with the problem that his coalition is unlikely to secure a big enough block of seats in Congress to push it through”
Ursula von der Leyen: “Europe wants to launch a new association with Argentina (Cronista)
Energy and a green transition will play a prominent role in renewed relations between the EU and Argentina
Europe has turned to Latin America amidst the geopolitical struggles caused by the war in Russia-Ukraine to strengthen economic ties with the region and reduce economic risk
The next round of conversations between the EU and Mercosur will begin on June 15
Lithium
State strategy for lithium: Government rejects “Chilean” nationalization (Ámbito)
The Casa Rosada will send a bill to Congress to promote industrialization of the lithium sector, stressing differences from the Chilean model of proposed nationalization
Officials stress that lithium will not be nationalized and there will not be a state-owned company
In Argentina, natural resources are considered property of the land/province in which they are found; the nationalization of lithium would only be able to be implemented following a constitutional reform, which is not an option for the government
European Union hurries agreement with Mercosur and promised more investments in Lithium in Argentina (Cronista)
The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen met with Alberto Fernández yesterday (Tuesday) and sustained the EU’s intention to ratify an EU-Mercosur agreement before the end of the year
Lithium record: the first trimester recorded an export milestone (Ámbito)
Lithium exports reached $294 million in the first trimester of 2023, an interannual increase of 98% and representing 23% of mining exports
Lithium is the country’s second-largest mineral export
Argentina says Chevron to invest $500 million in Vaca Muerta shale area (Reuters, Bloomberg)
The Vaca Muerta shale basin, located in the western province of Neuquen, “represents a major source of both domestic energy and foreign exports for the South American country”
The company is expected to invest $300 million by this week
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