Argentina Politics Update - 11 October 2023
Insaurralde scandal takes electoral toll, Bullrich files criminal complaint against Milei, peso breaks 1,000
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Politics
The caste in all its glory (Buenos Aires Times)
Kirchnerista mayor Martín Insaurralde has been the subject of a recent scandal involving him and his model/influencer girlfriend Sofía Clerici enjoying themselves on a yacht in Marbella while Insaurralde’s municipality of Lomas de Zamora, as well as the rest of the country, struggles amidst a never-ending economic crisis
The revelation of the scandal, just two weeks ahead of the presidential elections, leads analysts to wonder whether the timing was purposeful
The scandal has significant political repercussions, causing some voters to question if they will continue to support Peronist candidate Sergio Massa in the elections, and others to directly change their vote
Surprisingly and notably, neither libertarian candidate Javier Milei nor Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) candidate Patricia Bullrich attacked Massa during the debate for his party’s connection to the scandal
Argentina's presidential candidates go on attack in lively second debate (Buenos Aires Times)
Unión por la Patria (UxP) candidate Sergio Massa was the main target of the aggressive rhetoric from other candidates, with most jabs relating to his less-than-stellar tenure as Economy Minister
Former president Mauricio Macri posted a picture with JxC candidate Patricia Bullrich just ahead of the debate in a show of unequivocal support, while his ever-growing ties to libertarian candidate Javier Milei have come under scrutiny
During the debate, Massa announced he would create an FBI-style federal agency to fight organized crime
All of the candidates strongly condemned the terrorist attacks carried out by Hamas in Israel over the weekend, with the exception of Myriam Bregman (Latin America Daily briefing)
Bullrich files criminal complaint against Milei for accusing her of ‘bombing kindergartens’ (Buenos Aires Herald)
Milei accused Bullrich of bombing kindergartners as part of her role within the Montoneros armed guerilla group during the 1970s
Bullrich has filed a criminal complaint for defamation and libel against Milei
Government begins repatriation of Argentine citizens from Israel (Buenos Aires Times)
More than 1,200 Argentine citizens living in Israel are to be evacuated, following the recent escalation of violence in the Middle East
The military plane Hercules C-130 and Boeing 737s will be the two aircrafts involved in the operation, which will take Argentines from Tel Aviv to Rome
The government is also in talks with state airline Aerolineas Argentinas, which will bring Argentines back to Buenos Aires from Rome
Seven Argentine citizens have been killed and 15 remain missing
Maximum alert at South American Triple Frontier after Hamas’ attacks in Israel (Buenos Aires Times)
The tri-border region, as the junction between Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay is known, is home to at least six groups of terrorists and organized crime syndicates, including Hezbollah and Hamas
YPF expropriation case: Argentina to appeal, Burford requests asset seizure (Buenos Aires Herald)
Argentina was ordered by US Judge Loretta Preska to pay $16.09 billion to Burford Capital
Argentina is appealing the judgment, and has asked Judge Preska to halt Burford’s intentions to seize Argentine assets beginning October 15, explaining that “It would be an extraordinary breach of international comity to permit execution of the US$16.1 billion judgment in this case on an artificially constrained timeframe.”
How a Faded 1980s Party Explains Argentina’s 2023 Election (Americas Quarterly)
All three leading candidates have ties to the Unión de Centro Democrático (Ucedé) party from the late 1980s, which espoused an unapologetic free-market agenda alongside its anti-populist and conservative stances
Álvaro Caso Bello wonders whether the Ucedé’s legacy “will manifest through Milei’s more radical proposals, or through milder forms such as Bullrich’s bi-monetary plan or in what seems a possible pivot by Massa away from hardline kirchnerismo.”
Economics
In Argentina, the U.S. Dollar Could Soon Become King (New York Times)
“Dollarizing the economy is like locking oneself in handcuffs and then throwing away the key. It’s an act of desperation when nothing else works,” writes Peter Coy
Will This Be the Year Mercosur Breaks? (Americas Quarterly)
The region’s largest trade bloc is facing serious challenges from various member states who disagree on certain policies of the bloc, while a free trade agreement with the EU - a possible get-out-of-jail-free card for Mercosur - has been stalled for over 20 years
If the Mercosur-EU deal is not signed by December, it will be forgotten
Argentina’s Currency Plummets Under Attack from Far-Right Candidate (New York Times)
Milei’s comment that “The peso is the currency issued by the Argentine politician and therefore is worth less than excrement,” caused a currency run on Monday, resulting in the parallel “blue market” exchange rate to surge to $1,035
Analysts believe Milei is intentionally seeking to cause a banking problem, in order to increase support for his economic plans of dollarization and eliminating the central bank, among others
Argentina’s banks call Milei’s statements ‘unfounded,’ demand ‘democratic responsibility’ (Buenos Aires Herald)
In a public statement, a group of four Argentine banks said that “Candidates should avoid making unfounded statements that instill uncertainty in people and generate market volatility,” in a response to Milei’s recent statements about the peso
Rich fans only: South Americans grumble over cost to watch football (Buenos Aires Times)
Ticket prices for national team games across Latin America do not reflect the region’s economic reality, with average tickets costing at least ⅓ of an average local salary, if not more
Lithium + Energy
FEATURE: Argentina election raises stakes for energy, mining and agriculture outlook (S&P Global)
"All three candidates agree on the need to develop the country's mining industries, they just differ as to how," I told S&P Global. "Bullrich and Massa have an existing track record with provincial leaders and relevant private sector actors. Milei, on the other hand, would offer investors the possibility of taking a leap of faith."
Hxagon provides risk analysis and bespoke investigations in emerging and frontier markets, primarily in Latin America. If you are interested in our work or acquiring our services, do not hesitate to contact us!
Contact: info@hxagon.com
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