Argentina Politics Update - 1 November 2023
Contradictory polling results, JxC internal rupture, fuel shortages
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Politics
First post-election surveys forecast different winners (Reuters, Buenos Aires Times)
A new poll from Analogias shows Economy Minister Sergio Massa beating libertarian outsider Javier Milei in the country’s runoff election by 42% to 34%, with an additional 18% undecided and 6% voting blank
The poll also estimates that about a third of those who voted for Juan Schiaretti will turn to Massa, as well as about 15% of third place finisher Patricia Bullrich voters
Polls in Argentina have been known to be unreliable; different surveys show Milei beating Massa by 1% (CB Consultora), while others have Massa ahead by almost 10 points (Proyecciones)
Both candidates are relatively even in terms of image, with Massa at 40.3% positive and 57.7% negative compared to Milei’s 38.9% positive and 56.4% negative
Felipe Leibovich explains that, “These figures clearly show that the female vote eludes Milei, while youth votes (one of Milei’s strengths) in this case is much more even than people thought.”
Argentina’s third-place presidential candidate Bullrich endorses right-wing populist Milei in runoff (AP News)
Conservative opposition Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) coalition candidate Patricia Bullrich, who came in third in the country’s first round election, officially endorsed libertarian candidate Javier Milei ahead of the November 19 runoff election
The move has already caused ruptures within JxC, as members across the center-right coalition voiced support for or opposition to the endorsement of the right-wing candidate
Milei support opens deep crack in Argentina’s opposition coalition (La Nación, Buenos Aires Times, Buenos Aires Times, Buenos Aires Times)
PRO political party’s endorsement of Milei was orchestrated by former president and coalition founder Mauricio Macri and former presidential candidate Patricia Bullrich, without the input of other coalition leaders
Various coalition leaders, including Jujuy province governor Gerardo Morales and leader of political party Coalición Cívica ARI Elisa Carrió immediately spoke out against the endorsement, calling the move “grave”
Former JxC presidential candidate Horacio Rodríguez Larreta also pledged neutrality and will refuse to endorse either candidate, calling Massa and Milei “two bad alternatives”
“Milei is a disruptive figure that puts in question how Argentine politics were classically organised, which was Peronism and anti-Peronism or Kirchnerism and anti-Kirchnerism,” said Juan Negri, professor at Universidad Torcuato di Tella
Negri also analyzed JxC’s squandering of the lead they had in the months before the election, explaining that the opposition “had the chance to score a penalty without a goalie and they threw the ball to the crowd”
Macri responded to criticisms by claiming, “Juntos por el Cambio isn’t broken, at least not the one I founded.”
Unión Cívica Radical (UCR), an important party within the JxC coalition, issued a statement saying, "neither of the two [candidates] guarantees a future of progress for Argentina."
How Congress could be reconfigured following the Macri - Milei pact (Infobae)
Milei could gain an additional 30-35 votes in Congress from Macri’s base support, bringing together Milei’s “lions” and Macri’s “hawks” for a bloc of almost 70 seats
Various legislators indicated that no strategic decision regarding the joining of the parties would be taken until after the ballotage
Analysts Call Massa's Surprise Win in Argentina Good News for China (VOA)
Political analysts note that Massa is unlikely to review the country’s current strategic deals and currency swap agreements with China, and was also the only candidate to demonstrate interest in joining the BRICS trade bloc, of which China is a founding member
Argentina is China’s largest single recipient of emergency rescue loans
Taylor Swift fans burst into Argentina's election campaign with anti-Milei stance (Buenos Aires Times)
Ahead of Taylor Swift’s first visit to Argentina next week, a group of fans aiming to be on “the right side of history” began posting against Milei via their Twitter account, @SwiftiesContraLLA
The fanbase took inspiration from Taylor Swift’s previous criticism of US president Donald Trump, which then prompted outspoken criticism from her US-based fans
Korean K-pop band BTS has also spoken about against Milei and his running-mate Victoria Villarruel
Hamas holding 21 Argentines hostage, confirms Foreign Ministry (Buenos Aires Times)
Nine Argentines were reportedly murdered by Hamas on October 7 when the terrorist group launched its attack on Israel
Argentina and the infantilisation of poverty (Buenos Aires Times)
According to the INDEC national statistics bureau, minors between the ages of 0-17 are poorer than the rest of the population; statistics show 57% of children and teenagers, or approximately 7.4 million people, fall into that category
More than one million children are excluded from social welfare programs, given their migratory situation or statutory matters
Economics
Argentina Makes $2.6 Billion IMF Payment as Reserves Drop (Bloomberg)
Central Bank net reserves fell to their lowest level since 2006, reaching just $21.9 billion
Argentina made the payment to the IMF by using part of its currency swap line from China and through its special drawing rights (SDRs) from the IMF
Argentina will have to pay the IMF an additional $1.77 billion before the end of the year
Argentina fuel firms aim to normalize supply after disruptions (Reuters, Reuters)
Planned halts at local oil refineries, combined with a lack of dollars for oil imports, caused a major fuel shortage across the country; A stoppage at a refinery operated by state-owned oil company YPF was the main cause
The local oil price is fixed at $56 per barrel, below the international price of around $86
Economy Minister Massa is facing criticism for the shortage
On Monday, oil companies presented a plan to the government to return to normal operating capacity; the situation has already begun to improve
Oil refineries and producers announced Tuesday that they would aim to return to normal operating capacity
Argentina’s Massa Threatens to Cut Fuel Exports Amid Shortage (Bloomberg)
Massa told oil producers that their exports will be halted unless they increase fuel supplies amidst a nation-wide shortage
Massa accused oil companies of “holding onto fuel supplies on bets the government would devalue the official exchange rate after last week’s presidential elections.”
Argentina's inflation likely exceeded 10% in October, says private estimate (Buenos Aires Times)
The Orlando Ferreres consultancy firm forecast inflation in October to have reached 10.6%, bringing the annual rate to almost 150%
Argentine entrepreneurs recalibrate economic GPS ahead of run-off election (Buenos Aires Herald)
The business world sees a Massa presidential victory as a “leap into the void”
Many business leaders had already thrown their hats into the ring with market-friendly Patricia Bullrich, and were surprised by her loss in the first round
The economic ramifications of the first round of the elections were not what businesses and economists had expected, noting that “the Central Bank’s exposure in futures contracts has decreased significantly” and that the Central Bank accumulated more than $401 million across all trading sessions last week, its largest purchase in the past month
Lithium + Energy
How election results impact lithium (Perfíl)
Pablo Rutigliano, President and Founder of Mercado de Metales, opined that lithium in Argentina should officially be defined as a “commodity” in order to help the country establish an international price and create more demand for the mineral
Plan to relaunch mining train in Argentina’s northwest to increase lithium exports (El Inversor)
Investments in infrastructure and railroads could double the transport volume of trains, with lithium potentially growing from 12,500 tons annually to 400,000
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